Friday, December 9, 2022

Worker shortages

Here's a good high-level article on one of the more interesting questions of the current US economy: Why Aren't There Enough Workers?

The labor market presents challenges for investors. Consider as an example the downside knee-jerk reaction to last week’s NFP only to see the markets close in the green by the end of the day. But it also matters to policymakers like the Fed; they are concerned that strong labor demand is a driver of upwards wage pressures. My views are it is complex and nuanced, in ways that perhaps the Fed might be overlooking.

There have been many longstanding trends leading to the current problems. I suspect the most underestimated aspect of the Labor puzzle is that the US is suffering a shortage of workers. (there is not a lot that raising rates will do to offset that.) These are prior trends that accelerated during the pandemic.

I rather doubt that the Fed is actually overlooking any of these aspects of the worker shortage, but still the article, written by one of my favorite finance/economy bloggers, makes many good points and has a number of fascinating links to chase.

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