Friday, April 17, 2020

I'm not sure I'm learning very much from the statistics

Of course, neither statistics nor epidemiology is my field.

But still, how can you avoid being curious?

I looked at the overall statistics for the state, which are broken down county by county.

The ranking by county is an almost perfect match for the rank of counties by population.

For my own county, I tried looking a bit for city-by-city statistics, and found a pretty reasonable list here.

These, too, seem to map quite closely by population ranking. For example, about 25% of the population of Alameda County live in Oakland, and Oakland have almost exactly 25% of the cases.

Although there is more variability here. Berkeley have about 7% of the population, but have only about 4% of the reported cases. Hayward have about 10% of the population but have almost 20% of the reported cases. Fremont have about 14% of the population but have only about 8% of the reported cases.

But with a full 20% of the reported cases being in the categories "Under Investigation", "Known Homeless", "No Address", "Jail", and "Unincorporated", all of this seems very hard to get too precise about.

And I think I've heard that Hayward, specifically, have been the most active in doing testing. I read that people drove from all around the Bay Area to Hayward because you could get tested there. So maybe Hayward have simply tested twice as many people in their city than most of the other cities have done?

I guess I should go back to things that I (think I) know more about.

So I'll go back to writing software. Hope I'm better at that.


  1. It takes money to follow the safe path and stay at home, perhaps pay extra for grocery pickup or delivery. Disasters often hit the underclass the hardest.

  2. 2 parts about Hayward & yes, i agree about testing: 1. CSU east bay is 100% empty, testing is done there and 2 additional locations. CSU east bay is a great commuter school, so the big parking lots are really helpful for spacing. 2. lots of nursing homes/extended care (for both elderly & transient/mental health) are showing the complexity of social distancing when close-care is required.